Washington Administers Shock Therapy to Europe
Washington’s Three-Part Message to Its Transatlantic Allies
In this post, I aim to make sense of the recent geopolitical upheaval in the Transatlantic relationship. Let’s cut through the noise and examine the big picture.
A Shock Therapy for Europe
Europe is undergoing what I describe as a shock therapy administered by Washington. Capitals such as Paris, Berlin, Warsaw, Kiev, Oslo, and London are reeling in the aftermath of the Munich conference, scrambling to secure defense budgets. Meanwhile, Eastern Europe is on high alert, fearing a potential future Russian invasion. The palpable tensions in the Transatlantic relations signal a harsh wake-up call as Europe enters a new era of security challenges-- with reduced commitment from the American Big Brother.
Washington’s Three-Part Message to Its Transatlantic Allies
Message #1: Time for Europe to Act as a Defense Union
Washington is no longer willing to tolerate free riders. There is a belief in Washington that Europe has built its welfare state on the back of Uncle Sam’s security guarantees. Now, the call is for Europe to assume greater responsibility for its own defense.
Message #2: Europe Can Take Down Russia on Its Own
Russia is currently at its weakest, hampered by crippling economic sanctions and its status as a pariah on the international stage. Europe should be strong enough to counter the Kremlin’s imperial ambitions. However, building credible deterrence and maintaining a united European front will be challenging. Over the past year, Europe’s collective stance against Russia has weakened due to fragile government coalitions in France and Germany, the rising influence of pro-Russian far-right parties, and mounting economic pressures that have spurred calls to reintroduce a bigger share of Russian energy products to bolster EU competitiveness.
Message #3: The U.S. Has Bigger Fish to Fry—Namely, China
The United States is poised to confront its most formidable foe, China, while expecting Europe to manage its own security challenges with Russia. Although Washington may eventually have to address other threats, such as Iran, its immediate focus is clear.
What’s next?
Even after President Trump’s high-pressure campaign on Europe, the U.S. will not completely abandon its role in European energy security; it will remain the last resort for its allies when needed. For now, Europe will need to put its words into action when it comes to defending its values and freedom in Ukraine.
Washington may seek to separate Russia from China. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the two have deepened their economic and military cooperation—especially in the areas of energy trade and the Arctic trade route—making them more resilient and less dependent on Western financial and trade systems (e.g. the “yuanization” for payments).
Europe will need to continue forging a common strategy regarding its future imports of Russian energy without compromising its security.
Current European natural gas imports breakdown (by sources):
Norway: ~30%
United States: ~21%
Russia: ~18%
Algeria: ~18%
Stay tuned as I continue to analyze these critical developments in our evolving transatlantic landscape.