Israel, Iran & the Global Energy Chessboard
“We don’t know how far Israel is willing to go. We don’t know yet if the US will join the fight. And we don’t know what Iran will choose to do.” But I can help with scenario planning!
“#Qatar is one of the most vulnerable energy players in the region right now. It relies entirely on the #StraitofHormuz to export its #LNG— with major consequences for Asian buyers, notably #China, and global gas prices.”
— Leslie Palti-Guzman on Bloomberg Surveillance.
Listen to the full Bloomberg 6/18/2025 morning interview in which I shared my views on: #Israel#Iran war threatens tankers; transit via the Strait of Hormuz and other key maritime chokepoints. And a big thanks to @Tom Keene for the shout-out on my #EnergyVista market intelligence notes—where I spot energy, maritime and trade trend before they go mainstream.
I am following very closely the fast-evolving war between Iran and Israel and its impact on energy trade, Israel’s next move, the role of the US and how Iran chooses to respond. While it's impossible to predict exactly how events will unfold, the scenarios below offer plausible trajectories, each carrying different levels of energy market disruption (more on #EnergyVista; they can be consequential).
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Three War Scenarios with Energy Market Impact
1. Total Submission: Quick Finale with Uncle Sam Joining the Fight
Israeli operations inside Iran expand further, targeting nuclear and energy facilities but also ballistic missile launchers and command centers. The US formally enters the conflict, deploying B2 bombers to strike deeply buried sites like Fordow, where Iran has been enriching uranium. Both the US and Israel view Iran as the "head of the octopus" since October 7, and most of the international community sees a nuclear Iran as an unacceptable risk.
2. Diplomatic Resolution: A Return to Talks To Ensure the Mullah’s Survival, But on Weaker Terms
Facing overwhelming Israeli pressure—and the looming threat of American military involvement—the regime in Tehran opts to return to nuclear talks, seeking de-escalation, regime survival, and a face-saving exit.
This is likely the Gulf countries' preferred path because even a temporary diplomatic reset could stabilize oil and gas prices and reduce the immediate risk to energy infrastructure.
3. Iran Goes Rogue: Nuclear Breakout at All Costs
The regime in Tehran abandons all restraint and pushes toward a nuclear breakout with whatever is left from its program, betting everything on survival as a rogue state. It also lashes out broadly on multiple targets (as in scenario #1).