Since March 2022, I have doubted the long-term resolve of Europeans to permanently exclude Russian products (see my commentary published by the Atlantic Council on March 21, 2022 “Beware: Russia’s New Energy Sources Down But Not Out”). As a political scientist trained at Sciences-Po in France, I understand how Western European elites think about Russia and its place in the continent’s security architecture of the continent. As an expert in energy trade and the geopolitics of natural gas, I also recognized early how European economies were becoming vulnerable to deindustrialization and more expensive fuel imports in the absence of Russian gas.
This blend of geopolitical insight and energy market knowledge led me early on to forecast a development that is now becoming increasingly possible: the medium-term slow re-integration and political re-acceptance of Russian products in Western Europe.
Three years ago, I warned in the Atlantic Council piece that:“embargoes, bans, disinvestments, boycotts, and self-sanctioning will leave loopholes, have expiry dates, and overlook the possibility of Russian dominance in the future trade of cleaner energy sources.”I recommended “to devise an EU postwar energy strategy … to protect European nations from dependence on Russia for the resources that will fuel decarbonization.”
My analysis has not engaged in the moral or ethical dimensions of such a return. Rather, it has anticipated the conditions under which a partial reintegration becomes more likely.
Fast-forward to March 2025:
Competitive Russian products may become increasingly attractive to certain EU business interests—especially if Ukraine and Russia agree to freeze the war. Even then, rebuilding trust and infrastructure could take years.
A partial reset could nonetheless open the door to increased Russian gas flows into Europe over time—via both pipeline and LNG. A 20%+ market share is conceivable again (it stood at 18% in 2024, but has roughly halved in Q1 2025 following the halt of the Ukraine-Russia gas transit).
Much will hinge on the geopolitical settlement and its terms, which would shape the choice of pipeline routes and trigger a fresh round of negotiations among governments, European utilities, and Gazprom—now facing ~$20 billion in claims for under-delivered volumes.
Europe’s stance on sanctions is likely to remain firm for now, particularly amid a widening Transatlantic divide. The EU Commission will continue to advocate for a hard line against Russian energy dependency to assert its agency vis-a-vis Washington.
The biggest challenge for Europe will be preserving unity amid a loss of economic competitiveness, the pressures of rearmament and widening cracks in its geo-economics agenda.
Watch: My March 20, 2025 take on this topic on BNN Bloomberg — unpacking what a partial reset with Russia could mean for Europe's energy landscape.
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